Uncertainty is the mildest term to describe the state of every business and society, family and individual today around the world. Perhaps some people exist in splendid isolation from the rest of us; may they be spared this plague and its attendant uncertainty.

In this space I’m not going to focus on the coronavirus or the disease. I can’t pretend to know how long it will last. Some say a long time. Nobody says a short time. By the time this edition of L&NW reaches you, the change could be significant.

A survey of chief financial officers showed that 40% of large global companies with supply chain issues are expecting a return to normal – a subjective term – between three and six months. But 25% were certain that it would be six months. The survey was made in mid-March by the CNBC Global CFO Council. One-third of respondents said they thought it was too soon to know if they’ll have supply reductions. Nobody knows, they say.

Since nobody knows, let’s take a look ahead to recovery. Small and large manufacturing businesses are at work today to stave off calamity as best they can, and they wonder if they are achieving anything at all in the jaws of an unknown enemy. Is there time in the endless day to think about recovery and make a plan for it?

Recovery means restoration or return to health, to a normal condition. Back to the good old days. After this virus wanes, however, that old wish might not apply. Many observers envision a changed world, not the good old days. We’re learning how to deal with hardship in new ways. We’re getting used to isolation at home, maybe. We’re watching and participating in different ways to conduct business, to handle employee and management challenges, customer needs and vendor conflicts. At some point, we’re going to assess this whole thing and make changes. Some of us.

Young people might not. But that’s a story for the psychology magazines.

Non-essential businesses have been closed by order of states, and in some nations far more business segments are shuttered. Restaurants seem to attract most of the attention, but we read and see reports daily about a multitude of companies of all sizes cocooned until further notice. Some have the capability to continue financial and health support to employees, but many simply cannot. These businesses have only one place to look: forward.

In a current crisis management report published by Harvard Business Review, three partners from Boston Consulting Group (BCG) recommend that business leaders consider several actions now to build the foundation of recovery. The report is published at the Review’s site (hbr.org) and is titled “Lead Your Business Through the Coronavirus Crisis.” The authors are Martin Reeves, Nikolaus Lang and Phillip Carlsson-Szlezak.

Here’s a look at a few of the 12 steps:
Beware of news and hype: “When exposed to fast changing information, be it a new technology or an emerging crisis, we have a systematic tendency initially to overlook weak signals, then to overreact to emerging issues before we eventually take a more calibrated view. As you absorb the latest news, think critically about the source of the information before acting on it.”

Use experts and forecasts carefully: “Expert opinions differ on critical issues like optimal containment policies and economic impact, and it’s good to consult multiple sources. Each epidemic is unpredictable and unique, and we are still learning about the critical features of the current one. We need to employ an iterative, empirical approach to understanding what’s going on and what works – albeit one guided by expert opinion.”

Make sure your response is balanced:
• Communications. Deliver policies promptly and clearly to employees, along with the reasons.
• Remote work. Make your policies clear, “where they apply, how they will work, and when they will be reviewed.”
• Supply chain stabilization. “Attempt to stabilize supply chains by using safety stocks, alternative sources, and working with suppliers to solve bottlenecks. Where rapid solutions are not possible, co-develop plans, put in place interim solutions, and communicate plans to all relevant stakeholders.”
• Business tracking and forecasting. Establish rapid reporting cycles so you can understand internal changes and the attention they require, and the speed of recovery. “A crisis doesn’t imply immunity from performance management, and sooner or later markets will judge which companies managed the challenge most effectively.”
• Being part of the broader solution. Support others in your supply chain, industry, community and local government. Consider how your business can contribute.

Prepare now for the next crisis, the BCG partners advise. “Our research on the effectiveness of organizational responses to dynamic crises indicates that there is one variable which is most predictive of eventual success – preparation and preemption. Preparing for the next crisis (or the next phase of the current crisis) now is likely to be much more effective than an ad hoc, reactive response when the crisis actually hits.”

We’ve heard about essential and non-essential services. Fortunately, printers in the US have been included in the essential category because they are vital to the communications sector. (In at least one state they were excluded, but the ensuing uproar changed that.) Though label converters are feeling the pinch, they tend to be open and busy.

“We’re super busy. We’re essential,” says Brian Gale, president of ID Images, a converter with operations in Ohio, Arkansas, California, North Carolina and Tennessee. Some employees are understandably jittery about the future, but so far, the presses are running. “And we’re hiring production people,” he adds.

What does the future look like from Gale’s perspective? “Nobody has a playbook for this one. Nobody thought the economy would come to a screeching halt – the service industry, the restaurants. Clearly there will be changes, and they will exacerbate a lot of things that are already happening.” Some sectors will benefit he says, among them, converters like ID Images that print variable information.

Gale’s team is always planning. “Even before this hit, we were talking about it,” he says. “We started moving a lot of inventory to our Tennessee facility, where the virus didn’t seem to be as prevalent as on the West Coast or in the upper Midwest. We are estimating demand and what we’ll need in terms of redundancy.

“When it’s over, we’ll dive into our data and look at what products are critical and where are the points of failure. Some products we make only in one plant because that’s where the equipment is, but it might make sense to duplicate that in another plant. If they are critical products, we’ll carry more inventory. It requires creative solutions to meet our needs in the event of catastrophe.”

The BCG authors recommend preparation for a changed world. “We should expect that the COVID-19 crisis will change our businesses and society in important ways. It is likely to fuel areas like online shopping, online education and public health investments, for example. It is also likely to change how companies configure their supply chains and reinforce the trend away from dependence on few mega-factories. When the urgent part of the crisis has been navigated, companies should consider what this crisis changes and what they’ve learned so they can reflect them in their plans.”


The author is president of Jack Kenny Media, a communications firm specializing in the packaging industry, and is the former editor of L&NW magazine. He can be reached at [email protected].